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2024-05-18来源:编辑
When the appreciation of the renminbi, the currency of imports of intermediate goods prices fell, the changes in the cost structure, lower the cost of external dependence, lower cost level. More enterprises import raw materials, the effect of the more notable.

For example illustrates that. Assuming a vehicle processing and assembly enterprises, import-export all parts assembly, the cost of 10 billion US dollars in domestic processing value-added 20%, according 1:10 exchange rates, that is, value-added 20 billion yuan. While exports costs, the proportion of the renminbi and foreign exchange is 20 billion yuan: 10 billion US dollars, that is 1:5. The total cost is 120 billion yuan.

If the RMB is revalued 20% for the 1:8, imports cost 10 billion US dollars (80 billion yuan), domestic 20 billion yuan expenditure unchanged, the cost of the renminbi and foreign exchange ratio will become 20 billion yuan: 80 billion yuan, or 1 : 4. The total cost is 100 billion yuan, calculated in accordance with the RMB reduced 20%, offset by the rise in export prices, enterprises can not price hikes, exports will not be reduced.

In the above analysis, the hypothetical premise is: do not expand investment, no technological progress. However, enterprises can also choose to expand investment and raise the level of technology and enhanced export prices approach. Because of the appreciation of the renminbi 20 percent, making imports of raw materials, components and finished goods prices all decreased 20 percent. Enterprises can no longer import parts and components, and the foreign exchange savings will be used to focus on importing advanced technology and equipment and raw materials, and have its own assembly enterprises into processing enterprises to gain more value-added income. This time, corporate costs will be lowered the proportion of foreign exchange, in part because of domestic value-added renminbi. However, the total imports may increase, because as technology advances, often expanding production scale.

The people most worried about the higher prices of labor-intensive products exports is actually beneficial. A pants in the United States to sell 50 US dollars, now raised to 60 US dollars, and no reason to believe that American consumers will not sell trousers, or to Mexico to purchase. Even so, China's cheap labor-intensive products to reduce export volume increased price and will not reduce the amount of exports, at the same time could reduce international trade friction.

Labor-intensive industries is the way out for upgrading. The norms of the short-term macroeconomic analysis, assuming no technological progress and system innovation, and this does not apply in China, because China is still in accelerating structural reform and technology introduction period. The exchange rate appreciation for the impact, the need for dynamic analysis.

A common 25-inch color televisions in the United States sell 200 US dollars, the price increased to 230 US dollars, China's rural areas can be shifted sales prices. Enterprises should introduce advanced technology, new production of large-screen, multi-media color TV sales in the United States, prices could also greatly enhanced. Electromechanical products have been sustained and rapid and is to upgrade the appreciation of the RMB reduce the scale of import new equipment and raw materials costs, is to facilitate this process. The state must support export product upgrading, but not the use of currency exchange rate policy and fiscal policy should be used as export tax rebates, such as accelerated depreciation. The total monetary policy to solve the problem, fiscal policy address structural problems, we can not confuse. To keep the RMB appreciation does not reduce the export tax rebate rate, the speed of technological progress to reduce the foreign exchange reserves to absorb pressure is not appropriate.

China's export 25 has been from 9.5 billion US dollars to 400 billion US dollars, but no improvement in the terms of trade even a deterioration of the trade structure "one high and one low," characteristics. "One high" high proportion of labor-intensive products, "a low" refers to the export of high-tech high proportion of low value-added products. Relies on cheap labor-intensive products to achieve the quantitative expansion of the export-oriented strategy, as China is constantly 25, has been difficult. International anti-dumping soaring in China, the first half of 2003 China was 12 prosecuted, the ranking members of the WTO in the first. To ease the momentum of anti-dumping, China should also promote labor - labor-intensive industries to capital and technology-intensive industries - the transformation to achieve the dynamic comparative advantage of escalation, and the appreciation of the renminbi is in line with this strategy.

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